Dueling projections for the course of the COVID-19 pandemic are converging on a narrower range of estimates for this summer, as expected, but the longer-term outlook doesn’t call for coronavirus infections to fade away quickly.
- The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation currently projects 145,728 U.S. deaths due to COVID-19 by Aug. 4, which is higher than the 140,496 deaths projected last week. Meanwhile, data scientist Youyang Gu’s projection anticipates 158,465 U.S. deaths by the same date, which is lower than last week’s estimate of 161,445. Both models have a wide range of uncertainty.
- According to Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 dashboard, the current U.S. death toll is nearly 112,000, with more than 411,000 deaths worldwide. Some epidemiologists are concerned that the easing of social distancing standards and shutdowns, plus the current wave of mass protests against racism, could spark an upswing in COVID-19 cases.
- IHME’s researchers noted that estimates of COVID-19 infections have been gradually declining nationwide, but that several states — including Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin — are reporting stagnated progress or a rising level of infections. Separately, the Institute for Disease Modeling says COVID-19 transmission is decreasing in Western Washington state but increasing in Eastern Washington.